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Cynthia H's avatar

I've been following, and am inspired by the monks walking across the US for peace, as have been many thousands of others. Id love to walk, locally, on the day they walk into DC to show my solidarity. Anyone know if any walks for peace being organized?

Trinyh@gmail.com's avatar

Sending this from my son who has a PhD in Developmental Biology from The University of Chicago, so he ain't just whistling Dixie.

From James McClintock

Hello people of Facebook. I'm concerned that an important perspective on today's events in Venezuela isn't getting enough attention, so I'm hoping to get some conversation going. And since I'm a science nerd I'll provide references so you can see where I'm getting my info.

According to an article in today's NY Times, it's estimated that Venezuela has about 300 billion barrels of oil reserves - the most of any country (1). It's a particularly dirty source though - it's extra-heavy crude oil that requires extensive upgrading and refining, making it significantly more carbon intensive than conventional oil (2). It seems pretty clear that the administration's actions today are all about that dirty oil - Trump pretty much said so himself (he seems to say the quiet part out loud quite a lot).

Who knows what the hell happens next - does anyone seriously think Trump has a coherent plan to "run" Venezuela for a while? But let's say he does what he says he wants to do - get Venezuela up to a much higher rate of oil production. What if production goes up dramatically in the coming years? From 800,000 barrels/day to the historic high of 3.2 million barrels/day or more (2)? In some ways it doesn't seem too dramatic - if we get more oil from Venezuela, that will just replace oil we would have gotten from elsewhere, right?

It turns out that isn't the case - research shows that the majority of new oil supply is ADDED TO existing oil use rather than replacing existing sources (3). More supply means lower prices, which means more consumption and delayed renewable transitions. Why invest in solar and wind while oil is still plentiful and cheap? Ramping up to just 2 million barrels/day would add roughly 285 million tons of CO₂ per year - equivalent to Spain's entire annual emissions.

My understanding of the science is that we simply can't afford to do that. There are the scary impacts of slow, gradual climate change, but scientists are very concerned about "tipping points" - thresholds where just a bit of additional warming can trigger large, possibly irreversible changes in Earth's climate systems. Here's one example we understand well: when Greenland's ice sheet melts, it exposes dark land underneath. That dark land absorbs more heat than the ice did, which means faster melting, which exposes more dark land, then still more heat absorption… and you're off to the races (4). There are several of these potential tipping points - coral reef bleaching and permafrost thawing both have the potential to spiral out of control with faster warming (5).

Anyway, I hope this perspective gets woven into the discussion sooner rather than later - whatever happens in Venezuela moving forward, we need to make sure that dirty heavy crude oil stays in the ground. Feel free to share if you think this is worth thinking about.

1) https://www.nytimes.com/.../venezuela-oil-industry-trump...

2) https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/VEN

3) https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2335

4) https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0001-2

5) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950

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